Lab
Every strategy we test gets a pre-registered gate before it runs. If it passes, it moves toward the next gate. If it fails, the postmortem stays public — and the gate is frozen, so we cannot quietly rewrite the rules.
This page is the full record: every failure, every survivor, every contributor.
S055FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral reversion + momentum — κ<60 exit-patience (S-038 successor)
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−23%
Horizon
19.7y
Ann return
+9%
S049FORWARD · PAPER
Does adding a QQQ 0DTE fly diversify the SPX fly?
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S045FORWARD · PAPER
SPX 0DTE at-the-money iron fly
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.9
Max DD
−39%
Horizon
4.1y
Ann return
−7%
S044FORWARD · PAPER
SPX 0DTE near-ATM condor, actively managed
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−1.2
Max DD
−47%
Horizon
4.1y
Ann return
−11%
S038FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral reversion + momentum, clean universe
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−24%
Horizon
19.6y
Ann return
+9%
S037FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral mean-reversion + momentum (70/30)
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−24%
Horizon
19.6y
Ann return
+9%
S026PASSED · STAGE 3
SPX 0DTE iron condor, managed to a profit target
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.2
Max DD
−47%
Horizon
3.9y
Ann return
−3%
Hold-to-settle backtest, modeled delta, 346 sessions with a true ~10-pt wing (41% of the surface). The 25%-PT managed exit can't be backtested from sparse intraday 0DTE marks — that is exactly what forward-paper tracks.
S024FORWARD · PAPER
Selling naked earnings straddles in mid-caps
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Charts pending — trade-level data not wired yet
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S023QUEUED S4
Capturing the overnight-only return in US equities
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.52
Max DD
−32%
Horizon
21.4y
Ann return
+6%
S015FORWARD · PAPER
Selling over-priced earnings straddles in mid-caps
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.8
Max DD
−4%
Horizon
0.1y
Ann return
—
Forward paper, interim — 23 earnings events over ~4 weeks (2026-06-18→07-16); iron-fly EV −0.8%/event, win 17%, worst −3.0%. $100k, 1 contract/event; Sharpe is per-event. No result claimed.
S012PASSED · STAGE 3
Put-selling on dips, tighter vol-regime gate
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
3.3
Max DD
−2%
Horizon
11.2y
Ann return
+4%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S011PASSED · STAGE 3
Put-selling on dips, sized by downside risk
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
3.1
Max DD
−18%
Horizon
11.4y
Ann return
+8%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.