Lab
Every strategy we test gets a pre-registered gate before it runs. If it passes, it moves toward the next gate. If it fails, the postmortem stays public — and the gate is frozen, so we cannot quietly rewrite the rules.
This page is the full record: every failure, every survivor, every contributor.
S055FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral reversion + momentum — κ<60 exit-patience (S-038 successor)
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−23%
Horizon
19.7y
Ann return
+9%
S054PRE-REGISTERED
Hypothesis spec — Gap-surge day-one fade (exploration-first)
IdeaExploreForwardLive
No test has run yet — gates frozen —
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S053PRE-REGISTERED
Liquid, position-capped market-neutral reversion book
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
No test has run yet — gates frozen —
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S052PRE-REGISTERED
Market-neutral residual reversion on 9 sector ETFs
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
21y
Ann return
−1.7%
S051PRE-REGISTERED
Delta-30 short put + wheel on GDX (real option marks)
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.2
Max DD
−4%
Horizon
1.9y
Ann return
+1%
S050PRE-REGISTERED
GDX up/down streaks as a mean-reversion proxy
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
No test has run yet — gates frozen —
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S049FORWARD · PAPER
Does adding a QQQ 0DTE fly diversify the SPX fly?
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S047FAILED · STAGE 1
SPX 0DTE at-the-money fly with tight scalp exits
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Charts pending — trade-level data not wired yet
Sharpe · ann
−1.7
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
Stage-1 in-sample scalp (5% PT + ±EM stop, 444 sessions): worst −$948, win 82%. Under investigation — data errors found.
S046FAILED · STAGE 1
SPX 0DTE managed condor, high-vol days only
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.7
Max DD
−26%
Horizon
4y
Ann return
+9%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S045FORWARD · PAPER
SPX 0DTE at-the-money iron fly
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.9
Max DD
−39%
Horizon
4.1y
Ann return
−7%
S044FORWARD · PAPER
SPX 0DTE near-ATM condor, actively managed
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−1.2
Max DD
−47%
Horizon
4.1y
Ann return
−11%
S042PRE-REGISTERED
SPX 0DTE condor gated to high-volatility days
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
No test has run yet — gates frozen —
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S040PRE-REGISTERED
Factor-balanced market-neutral book, low turnover
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
No test has run yet — gates frozen 2026-07-08
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S039PRE-REGISTERED
Market-neutral stock book with a bond + gold overlay
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
No test has run yet — gates frozen 2026-07-06 (frozen)
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S038FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral reversion + momentum, clean universe
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−24%
Horizon
19.6y
Ann return
+9%
S037FORWARD · PAPER
Market-neutral mean-reversion + momentum (70/30)
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−24%
Horizon
19.6y
Ann return
+9%
S036FAILED · STAGE 1
Mean-reversion on cointegrated ETF baskets
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.4
Max DD
−8%
Horizon
19.1y
Ann return
−0%
S035FAILED · STAGE 1
Cross-sectional ETF momentum (12-minus-1-month)
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
+5.8%
S034FAILED · STAGE 1
Mean-reversion on cointegrated ETF pairs
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.2
Max DD
−3%
Horizon
19.1y
Ann return
−0%
S033QUEUED S3
Rolling-income covered calls on a held ETF
IdeaExploreForwardLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.0
Max DD
−31%
Horizon
27.4y
Ann return
+14%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S032QUEUED S3
ETF buy-write entered on oversold (RSI-2) pullbacks
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.7
Max DD
−10%
Horizon
27.4y
Ann return
+2%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S031FAILED · STAGE 1
Rotating across asset classes by relative strength
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.59
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S030FAILED · STAGE 1
Buying pullbacks to the 21-EMA in strong trends
IdeaExploreForwardLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
−43%
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S029FAILED · STAGE 1
Buying pivot breakouts in trending stocks
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
−41%
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S028FAILED · STAGE 1
Oversold-dip reversion (RSI-2) with a protective stop
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.6
Max DD
−78%
Horizon
15.6y
Ann return
−9%
S027FAILED · STAGE 1
Buying short-term oversold dips (RSI-2) in uptrends
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.3
Max DD
−71%
Horizon
15.6y
Ann return
−6%
S026PASSED · STAGE 3
SPX 0DTE iron condor, managed to a profit target
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.2
Max DD
−47%
Horizon
3.9y
Ann return
−3%
Hold-to-settle backtest, modeled delta, 346 sessions with a true ~10-pt wing (41% of the surface). The 25%-PT managed exit can't be backtested from sparse intraday 0DTE marks — that is exactly what forward-paper tracks.
S025FAILED · STAGE 1
Long low-issuance stocks, short share diluters
IdeaExploreForwardLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.3
Max DD
−37%
Horizon
14.8y
Ann return
+3%
S024FORWARD · PAPER
Selling naked earnings straddles in mid-caps
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Charts pending — trade-level data not wired yet
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S023QUEUED S4
Capturing the overnight-only return in US equities
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.52
Max DD
−32%
Horizon
21.4y
Ann return
+6%
S022PRE-REGISTERED
Short-squeeze pressure in heavily-shorted stocks
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
No test has run yet — gates frozen 2026-06-08
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S021PRE-REGISTERED
Fading stocks after social-attention spikes
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
No test has run yet — gates frozen 2026-06-08
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S020QUEUED S3
Drift after share-buyback announcements
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
15y
Ann return
+1%
CONFIRMED 2026-07-20 via a sealed-holdout out-of-sample test. Small-cap 8-K share-repurchase announcements (EDGAR full-text search), enter after the filing, excess vs Russell 2000. In-sample 2020–2024: +0.7% @40d (t=2.8), +1.1% @60d (t=3.6). SEALED HOLDOUT 2010–2019 (a disjoint decade the exploration never saw): +1.0% @40d (t=5.7), +1.2% @60d (t=5.2) — replicates STRONGER out-of-sample on 3,796 independent events. The drift curve above is the average cumulative excess return session-by-session after the announcement. A genuine, OOS-validated small-cap post-announcement drift. Frozen config; per-event alpha (event study). Not yet forward-paper or live.
S019PRE-REGISTERED
Following clusters of insider buying
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
5y
Ann return
−0%
Frozen & published 2026-07-20. Insider open-market cluster buys (≥2 distinct insiders/30d, Form-4 code P), 4,787 events 2020–2024, held 40 sessions, excess vs Russell 2000 (IWM). Result = NULL: mean excess -0.2%, hit 45%, t=-0.5; ~0 at every cluster def and 20–180d horizon. The documented anomaly does not replicate at the spec's short horizon on recent data (in-sample, benchmark-relative). Logged in the open.
S018PRE-REGISTERED
Buying beaten-down microcaps into the January rebound
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.1
Max DD
−12%
Horizon
20y
Ann return
+1%
Frozen & published 2026-07-20. Tax-loss rebound, worst-YTD-decile microcap basket (ADV $50k–5M, px≥$2, survivorship-free) vs equal-weight baseline, 20 Decembers 2005–2024, 100 bps friction. WEAK: mean alpha +0.7%/yr, hit 45%, t=0.5 — faint + friction-fragile (~breakeven at realistic microcap cost); strongest in the deepest/lowest-priced losers and in a short turn-of-year (Dec→early-Jan) hold. In-sample exploration result (no sealed holdout). Logged in the open.
S017FAILED · STAGE 1
Trading the Russell index-reconstitution drift
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−2.2
Max DD
−15%
Horizon
4y
Ann return
−4%
S016RETIRED · EXPLORATION
Trading price 'pinning' to strikes into expiration
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Dropped at the idea stage — the pinning magnet is the heavy open-interest strike, and historical option OI-by-strike isn't available to backtest it (a price-only round-strike proxy shows no effect)
Sharpe · ann
—
Max DD
—
Horizon
—
Ann return
—
S015FORWARD · PAPER
Selling over-priced earnings straddles in mid-caps
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.8
Max DD
−4%
Horizon
0.1y
Ann return
—
Forward paper, interim — 23 earnings events over ~4 weeks (2026-06-18→07-16); iron-fly EV −0.8%/event, win 17%, worst −3.0%. $100k, 1 contract/event; Sharpe is per-event. No result claimed.
S014FAILED · STAGE 1
Put-selling on dips: combined filter, sizing and stop
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
2.6
Max DD
−3%
Horizon
9.9y
Ann return
+5%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S013FAILED · STAGE 1
Put-selling on dips: vol gate + risk sizing + stop
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
2.6
Max DD
−3%
Horizon
9.9y
Ann return
+5%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S012PASSED · STAGE 3
Put-selling on dips, tighter vol-regime gate
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
3.3
Max DD
−2%
Horizon
11.2y
Ann return
+4%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S011PASSED · STAGE 3
Put-selling on dips, sized by downside risk
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
3.1
Max DD
−18%
Horizon
11.4y
Ann return
+8%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S010FAILED · STAGE 1
Put-selling on dips, gated by the market's vol regime
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
2.2
Max DD
−9%
Horizon
10.1y
Ann return
+24%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S009FAILED · STAGE 1
Put credit spreads on dips in an uptrend
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.2
Max DD
−25%
Horizon
10.3y
Ann return
−1%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S008FAILED · STAGE 1
Selling puts into sell-offs within an uptrend
IdeaDesign & priorsForward paperLive
Equity (proxy)
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
2.6
Max DD
−29%
Horizon
10.3y
Ann return
+28%
Proxy premium — model under-prices tail risk, so Sharpe is optimistic.
S007FAILED · STAGE 1
First-30-minute drift in speculative small caps
IdeaExploreForwardLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−4.1
Max DD
−93%
Horizon
2.9y
Ann return
−58%
S006FAILED · STAGE 1
Fading overnight gaps in calm markets
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.8
Max DD
−51%
Horizon
15.3y
Ann return
−4%
S005FAILED · STAGE 1
Fading volume spikes that don't follow through
IdeaExploreForwardLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
−0.1
Max DD
−45%
Horizon
16.2y
Ann return
−2%
S004FAILED · STAGE 2
Rotating into the strongest relative-strength leaders
IdeaQuick-screenWalk-forwardTrade simLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
0.2
Max DD
−53%
Horizon
15.4y
Ann return
+1%
S003FAILED · STAGE 1
Volatility squeeze, then expansion breakout
IdeaExploreForwardLive
Equity
P/L distno gate
Sharpe · ann
0.4
Max DD
−34%
Horizon
15.4y
Ann return
+4%
S002FAILED · STAGE 1
Screening breakouts by volatility-of-volatility
IdeaExploreForwardLive
Equity
P/L distno gate
Sharpe · ann
1.1
Max DD
−31%
Horizon
16.1y
Ann return
+12%
S001FAILED · STAGE 1
52-week-high breakouts confirmed by volume
IdeaExploreForwardLive
Equity
P/L distgate
Sharpe · ann
1.0
Max DD
−25%
Horizon
15.4y
Ann return
+11%